Coronavirus: COVID-19

[Olterin]

So uh, does anyone know of any numbers of how many people got well over the timespan that this has been ongoing? Because I've thus far only read of "number of infected", "number of dead", "number of seriously ill" - and those are already not exactly telling a pretty tale

[pjknibbs]

So uh, does anyone know of any numbers of how many people got well over the timespan that this has been ongoing? Because I've thus far only read of "number of infected", "number of dead", "number of seriously ill" - and those are already not exactly telling a pretty tale

Even the most pessimistic estimates I've seen put the death rate at 3%. That's 30 times higher than regular flu, but we're not talking Ebola levels of death from this thing.

[Olterin]

So uh, does anyone know of any numbers of how many people got well over the timespan that this has been ongoing? Because I've thus far only read of "number of infected", "number of dead", "number of seriously ill" - and those are already not exactly telling a pretty tale

Even the most pessimistic estimates I've seen put the death rate at 3%. That's 30 times higher than regular flu, but we're not talking Ebola levels of death from this thing.

"Just 3%" Yeah about that ... that's currently more or less the official number, I've been keeping track of it. To put it into perspective, in a yearly flu epidemic which infects let's say 10 million people (rough numbers are rough, but this is a realistic scale for Germany), a 3% death rate would account for 300 000 dead. Considering that this virus may well prove to be more infectious than the flu, or is at least roughly on par, it's a scale that is to be expected. No, this is not Ebola levels of deadly, but overall, still potentially quite ugly.

[pjknibbs]

Just trying to put it in perspective. You get people talking like this would be the end of humanity if it got out of China, but it's a very long way from being that bad.

[Alan Phipps]

Expert health authorities are now consistently citing the Wuhan seafood and livestock market as almost certainly the source point. Some of the earlier tranche human patients were employed in that market. The market also sells locally-sourced animals (some that do not generally appear on Western menus) that are held live and killed only when about to be sold for human consumption; some are known potential coronaviral carriers from which the virus could mutate to previously unencountered forms.

That being said, why are equivalent markets (which I assume must exist nationally if not more globally) along with their stock sourcing and handling procedures not at least being assessed for their potential to repeat the cycle with further viral mutations? Or if they are, why are such investigations or recommendations not being promulgated more widely?

Of course, such traditional food sources and handling procedures will indeed be extremely hard to change but the likely consequences of them just continuing unchanged are being laid out quite starkly now.

[Gosnell]

The 3% death rate can vary based on a number of factors, should the virus spread to overpopulated countries with poor medical infrastructure and access to clean water, that 3% could potentially rise perhaps even double, factor in the unrest that a pandemic would cause that figure could again rise. Developed nations, of course, will be less likely to reach critical social unrest, however, even then the increased strain on the healthcare systems could lead to a 4-5% mortality rate depending on the scale of the epidemic.
My honest opinion right now, is we will know if its a pandemic within 2 weeks, should there be a rise of 100 to 200 cases in Germany and France, it will be safe to say containment has failed after that, hard to judge. One concern I do have is that should it spread rapidly in Europe, i doubt if the civilian population will be complacent in citywide quarantines. For once I would argue that having an authoritarian system may benefit maintaining order and quarantines. Again that is my own opinion, I'm neither a doctor or politician, just going on instinct.

[Mightysword]

That being said, why are equivalent markets (which I assume must exist nationally if not more globally) along with their stock sourcing and handling procedures not at least being assessed for their potential to repeat the cycle with further viral mutations? Or if they are, why are such investigations or recommendations not being promulgated more widely?

As someone from Asia I can tell you this: it's probably easier for China to land a person on the moon than to do what you said. To put it into perspective, during the horse meat scandal in Europe some years ago I remember seeing a map illustrate how much hoop a package of meat travel "around" Europe from when the animal is slaughtered to where it appears on the shelves, and it showed the complexity of such a market, and that's Europe, one of the place with a lot more organization and regulation then most place in the world. Then take account of these fact:

- China is only a little bit smaller then Europe.
- It has almost 3 time the population.
- It has the GDP of a developed nation but most people still live in 2nd or 3rd world condition.

It means market like this is still the primary food source for many. To bring it to Western standard, you'll need a gigantic amount of investment not just for the initial infrastructure but also to subsidize it in the long run until the population's income can catch up to off-set the extra cost of production. It won't be a exaggeration to say it would cost far more then landing someone on the moon, or to develop their next 5 "special-anti-US-force" weapons (like their much bragged anti-carrier missile).

And that is assume they will also have the necessary liability and oversight to properly keep that system relative clean and authentic - which speaking from experience - won't happen. I still remember when the first "super-market" open in my country it was a thrill. People (mostly rich) were happy to pay a premium for "clean vegetable and government certified meat produce". And for a short while that was true, but once the demand on the mainstream catch on, it started becoming muddy real fast, and my relative living there now say there is no guarantee the meat you get from a fancy "super-market" is not from the same source as the one you get from a traditional market such as this.

[Alan Phipps]

Thanks Mightysword.

I certainly wasn't seeking to impose a European-style regulation of the indiginous markets and food produce. There is indeed a complicating cultural element to it as I believe that such markets' customers much prefer 'warm' meat foods, ie something killed only just before consumption. This not only avoids the needs for cold storage but is also a local cooking and taste preference, or so I am told.

My question was more whether any health authorities were checking similar markets outside of Wuhan's for their degree of risk from mutated virals. Whether their formal regulations change or not, at least the populations and authorities would be better informed of the risks. We see footage of even the far less wealthy locals and nationals wearing (or being required to wear?) protective masks during the current crisis and so I surmise that they must at least be somewhat concerned about levels of risk at individual and administration level.

[Tamina]

So WHO has declared a global health emergency on the Coronavirus. Huh. Don't know how to react now. ^^

[felter]

So it turns out Plague inc (the game) have had to release a statement that it is a game, a game that has nothing to do with the reality of how an actual plague works and spreads. That the game itself exaggerates how a plague works and is not based on any kind of scientific evidence. They have had to do this due to extra people login onto the game and stressing their servers to find information about how the Coronavirus works and spreads. They say if you want information look at official places like the CDC or WHO.

[CBJ]

That's an interesting turn of events given that the game's creator was invited to speak at CDC events and interviewed on the CDC's own blog back when the game was fairly new.

[felter]

That makes it even funnier.

[red assassin]

I mean, the characterisation of the statement from the developer in this thread makes it sound a lot more out of keeping with their work with the CDC than the actual statement does. Here's what it actually says:

The Coronavirus outbreak in China is deeply concerning and we’ve received a lot of questions from players and the media.

Plague Inc. has been out for eight years now and whenever there is an outbreak of disease we see an increase in players, as people seek to find out more about how diseases spread and to understand the complexities of viral outbreaks.

We specifically designed the game to be realistic and informative, while not sensationalising serious real-world issues. This has been recognised by the CDC and other leading medical organisations around the world.

However, please remember that Plague Inc. is a game, not a scientific model and that the current coronavirus outbreak is a very real situation which is impacting a huge number of people. We would always recommend that players get their information directly from local and global health authorities.

You can find out more about the CDC and Plague Inc. here: https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatte ... lague-inc/
You can find out more information about Coronavirus here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... virus-2019

https://www.ndemiccreations.com/en/news ... s-outbreak

[felter]

Thx for that, I had watched it on a video, it's why I never linked it so it's nice to see it in text and the official text at that. It's also nice to see that I basically got it right too, which is unusual.

[Mightysword]

There is indeed a complicating cultural element to it as I believe that such markets' customers much prefer 'warm' meat foods, ie something killed only just before consumption. This not only avoids the needs for cold storage but is also a local cooking and taste preference, or so I am told.

Can confirm. It took me about ... 5 years maybe for my tastebud to get used to the mediocrity of frozen meat, and even now I'm still salivating whenever I remember the taste of fresh cut. I don't hunt but I figure the people who hunt would know the difference.

My question was more whether any health authorities were checking similar markets outside of Wuhan's for their degree of risk from mutated virals. Whether their formal regulations change or not, at least the populations and authorities would be better informed of the risks. We see footage of even the far less wealthy locals and nationals wearing (or being required to wear?) protective masks during the current crisis and so I surmise that they must at least be somewhat concerned about levels of risk at individual and administration level.

Oh I'm sure they do, this IS China we're talking about, they don't let the public perceive the government as standing by and doing nothing. But to bring meaningful change or even temporary control is hard. But first, I'm curious: when a Westerner see a market like the one in question in Wuhan here, what do people take it as? Do you assume it's a rare, niche kind of market? Thing is places like that is very common, and probably outstrip the conventional market both in term of #, volume of trade and people served. And the best part of it is: it's functioning like a flea-market for the most part. The majority of the people peddle their wares there are probably illiterate who won't be able to write a receipt much less keeping a ledger. Live stock can come from a clan with a few hundred head of cattle, to a family raising 5-6 heads as supplementary incomes, and a market like this can have dozen if not hundred of participants like that. Factoring the hunter/trapper and you can see barring just shut down the whole things (which China did do at the onset), there is very little to do in term of control. It's not like in the West where you would ideally have a manifest to trace the contamination back to a source then quarantine it.

And there can only be so long you can keep a market like this shutdown. I can tell you this, folks live with these market don't have a habit of stocking weeks of food in their freezer like in the West. Most people go to the market in the morning everyday for fresh ingredient and cook enough to consume within the day. I'm sure canned food and government ration are being used right now to keep people fed, but you will starve the population keeping a place like this shut for too long.

[Masterbagger]

So it turns out Plague inc (the game) have had to release a statement that it is a game, a game that has nothing to do with the reality of how an actual plague works and spreads. That the game itself exaggerates how a plague works and is not based on any kind of scientific evidence. They have had to do this due to extra people login onto the game and stressing their servers to find information about how the Coronavirus works and spreads. They say if you want information look at official places like the CDC or WHO.

I downloaded that game years ago (2013?) while bored and waiting in a dentists office in what would also turn out to be the last time I would seek dental modification. It's been in my mind this whole time that it isn't for real until Madagascar closes it's borders.

Coronavirus has made the local news here this week with a college student confirmed with having it. There is no sense of urgency here yet but it did give me an excuse to check on my emergency supplies. I have plenty of water, gatorade, monster, and canned danish hams. My stash of hams is good for another 2 years. If there is a widespread panic in the future the only thing I will need to really stock up on is beer and I think most of the crowd will be trying to get food so I will be fine. I can stay home and eat ham for weeks in the event of pandemic.

Can confirm. It took me about ... 5 years maybe for my tastebud to get used to the mediocrity of frozen meat, and even now I'm still salivating whenever I remember the taste of fresh cut. I don't hunt but I figure the people who hunt would know the difference.

Supermarket meat is gassed with carbon monoxide, injected, and kept unnaturally red to appear fresher than it really is. Walmart beef is a no go for me. Since I can't exactly go hunt a cow I don't have a lot of options but to just try not to think about it.

[Gosnell]

Emergency supply kit check
Baseball Bat
2 foot of barbed wire
Leather Jacket
Iron
Wait wrong type of apocalypse
6 crates of coffee
Map to the remotest solar farm and food distribution hubs(while all the others loot the supermarkets ill hit the warehouse).
1 dog

[felter]

I don't know what to say about this, but he didn't deserve for his life to end like that.

[Mightysword]

I don't know what to say about this, but he didn't deserve for his life to end like that.

Was at work when the news first broke, only to see it recant later during lunch break (claiming he was still alive), then see it updated he actually died when leaving work. I only hope his last few days were comfortable.

About the spread itself. It's encouraging to see the # of new cases outside of China had slowed down significantly. Seeing how countries are already taking a hard stand on containment, we may have managed to dodge a global epidemic. I'll give it another 2 weeks in deferment to the incubation period, but if there is nothing more than just a few more cases falling through the crack then I think we can breath easy.

Not so sure about inside China though. By all account at this point it's more serious than SARS, but the question is why. I hope it's only because the slow reaction compounded by the seasonal travel of the new years (5mil people travel out of Wuhan for the new years before the lock down) and not because this is a more potent virus. I had been reading up about Wuhan a bit, prior I thought it's small/obscure region but turn out it's a pretty large and important modern logistic hub for China in term of manufacturing and transport. If one think about the economic loss from its and other cities lock down, the damage is probably quite staggering/unprecedented.

To put it in a roughly compatible perspective: it would like seeing Houston, Memphis, Atlanta, Chicago in the US, or London and the Midlands hub in the UK going into locked down. And if there is one country that wouldn't do it unless they absolutely have to, that would be China. Again, hope it's not serious but just like the way how they fumble on the announcement of Dr. Li's death today doesn't really help the confidence.

[felter]

Trump must be loving it as it turns out for the few weeks the virus has been doing it's rounds, it has managed to do more damage to Chinese trade than the three years of his trade wars has managed to do. I'm sure he has probably been talking abut how great it has been, I doubt he has even made any consideration to the deaths and hurt it has done, because it doesn't effect him personally.