Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Another thing that has become crystal clear, is that Ukraine isn't going to receive the help it seeks. With a majority of Americans opposed, there simply isn't the sentiment in the US to continue funding this war. I also get the sense that many in the EU are also having second thoughts. So, there is the fantasy and then there is the reality.

Incorrect - Russia is already at war time economy with 20-30% GDP going into military.

The West on average spend 2% GDP on military - some less (e.g. Germany 1%), some bit more (US 3.5%, Poland 4%).
Many EU countries already thinks about rearnament, which means their "old" stuff will be easier to end up in Ukraine.

The West can easily up their spending significantly, just by uncreasing by small percentage (it already started with ammunition and artillery production).
You might miss it in your information bubble, but Ukraine contracted already a lot of stuff that is beign produced in western factories right now.
Russia cannot crank up another 10% of GDP without getting into economic death spiral.

There are post-WW2 economic analysis about Soviet Union.
During WW2, they went total war military spending and efect was that their economy was still underferforming and affected by WW2 till 1980s.

Russia doesn't have much of room left, unless China decide to help significantly (materially and financially).

[fiksal]

Russia doesn't have much of room left, unless China decide to help significantly (materially and financially).

on conspiracy side it seems China has the eyes on its former territory in Russia. So maybe not the help Russia expects

[Chips]

After nearly two years of full-blown war one thing has become crystal clear: Russia will not decide who wins. This war will be decided by the West, especially the U.S. If the U.S. sends Ukraine enough weapons and ammo, Ukraine wins. It's that simple.

Another thing that has become crystal clear, is that Ukraine isn't going to receive the help it seeks. With a majority of Americans opposed, there simply isn't the sentiment in the US to continue funding this war. I also get the sense that many in the EU are also having second thoughts. So, there is the fantasy and then there is the reality.

Have you a link for "majority of Americans are opposed" because I can't find any evidence; quite the contrary.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -2023-poll
https://news.gallup.com/poll/513680/ame ... harts.aspx

Fantasy indeed.

I'd also point out Ukraine said they had no intent on joining NATO before the Euromaiden protests and subsequent invasion of Crimea by Russia. That changed their stance. Funny that.

A cynic may believe Putin had long planned all this...

The reality is everyone in the thread is just putting forward their opinions; opinions which don't have anything of weight or merit behind.

No real help was offered on the initial invasion, but after witnessing the resilience and fight being put up by the Ukrainians, help started and then continued to grow as confidence grew that helping them could prevent them being overrun. As long as the countries are willing to give help, they've got fight. They can decide when it's time to call it or not. It's all desperately sad, but it remains entirely at Russia's door.

Now I do understand what people say about what they believe is best for... what they think. So fair enough. To me, ask the people of Ukraine. When they say they want to surrender or yield territory then that's what they should do. Only issue is how they get to express that during a war...

As for China could help Russia - why? What would they gain?

[notaterran]

Russia doesn't have much of room left, unless China decide to help significantly (materially and financially).

on conspiracy side it seems China has the eyes on its former territory in Russia. So maybe not the help Russia expects

If China helps Russia that would change things, however it seems that China is economically more vulnerable than Russia. I'm guessing the Chinese are well aware of this.

[Falcrack]

The Senate appears ready to approve a standalone Ukraine aid bill, without the border provisions. It looks like it will comfortably pass the Senate. Whether Johnson will allow a vote in the House or not is another question, but I feel cautiously optimistic. There will be quite a lot of political pressure to get this passed, now that Republicans can no longer cry about demanding border and immigration provisions.

If Johnson fails to bring it up for a vote, perhaps Democrats could launch their own discharge petition against Johnson along with like-minded Republicans who want to support Ukraine, and then vote for a Republican for Speaker of the House who would be willing to bring it up for a vote.

[fiksal]

Russia doesn't have much of room left, unless China decide to help significantly (materially and financially).

on conspiracy side it seems China has the eyes on its former territory in Russia. So maybe not the help Russia expects

If China helps Russia that would change things, however it seems that China is economically more vulnerable than Russia. I'm guessing the Chinese are well aware of this.

that's just wild speculation here

but let's say Russia is too weak to fight off (which is now) and its nuclear missiles won't fly (which might be true already) or the government is falling apart. Then who would stop and punish China for taking part of Russia? Russia has no allies. Will Europe then just do a stern warning and that's it?

[Observe]

but let's say Russia is too weak to fight off (which is now) and its nuclear missiles won't fly (which might be true already) or the government is falling apart. Then who would stop and punish China for taking part of Russia? Russia has no allies. Will Europe then just do a stern warning and that's it?

Since we are indulging in speculation, what if Russia asked to join NATO?

[fiksal]

Since we are indulging in speculation, what if Russia asked to join NATO?

pre Ukraine war (and before Georgia), I would say it's a good step towards normal life.

after the war, it should be refused till it's de nazified so to speak. It can't be with this regime


if we are speaking of a positive future for Russia, its future is with the European world, abandoning the dreams of empire, and paying for its actions inside and outside

[burger1]

Russian missile factory might have blown up??? Apparently they were upgrading nuclear capable missiles propellants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBOHe72M2g4

The incident was reported by Russian state-run news agency Tass, which said a local emergency services agency announced that the blast was caused by "a scheduled test of rocket engines," calling it "a planned event, not an emergency."

https://www.newsweek.com/explosion-russ ... sk-1868050

Another oil refinery likely hit . Illsky refinery.

Ukrainians hit a missile factory ~800 km behind enemy lines. They might be using some of their newer longer range drones.

Gas pipeline explosion also.

Don't count on the senate to pass stuff.

[mr.WHO]

Since we are indulging in speculation, what if Russia asked to join NATO?

Look how Sweden got trouble with just Hungary.

If Russia would ask for membership HALF of Europe would say "hell no" right away.

Before this war, under condition that China would be aggresor and would do to Russia what Russia is doing to Ukraine, I might consider helping, like civilised people should.
However now, when we see what we see in Ukraine - Russo-Sino war would be like - "get the popcorn, nothing of value has been lost".

[chew-ie]

Guess it's more likely for China to join NATO. Putin would just loose it

[mr.WHO]

Abarently France is considering Mirage 2000 for Ukraine and there are several countries that currently want to replace their Mirage 2000 with something new.

[Tamina]

Just a little fun fact on a side note here: The USSR once applied for a NATO membership.

[fiksal]

Just a little fun fact on a side note here: The USSR once applied for a NATO membership.

Now that I didn't know...
I see in 1954

[chew-ie]

Oh boy .. what is it with all those extremists spreading like weed everywhere? Hungary and Romanian extremists fantasise a Russian victory followed by the creation of a new empire (for Hungarians and Romanians) on Ukraine soil. Of course, our extremists Nazi party (AfD) is also "on board" to stimulate those fantasies.

Träume vom Großreich in Ungarn und Rumänien (german article in german state media ARD, rough title translation: "Dreams of a hungarian and romanian empire in Ukraine")

Seems like we have a brain eating parasite on earth yet to be discovered...

[EGO_Aut]

Oh boy...... fantasies.

Träume vom Großreich in Ungarn und Rumänien (german article in german state media ARD, rough title translation: "Dreams of a hungarian and romanian empire in Ukraine")

Seems like we have a brain eating parasite on earth yet to be discovered...

What a brilliant idea to help Ukraines not gone eated by Russia. Why negotiate with the EU to become a member if you can simply be assimilated? What i remember, the same happend with DDR getting united with EU. /s

No, serious, i had to lol alot reading this article.

Zitat: translated
"If there are political changes in these countries and the new governments no longer support Ukraine, then the state of Ukraine will cease to exist," Laszlo Toroczkai explained his logic. At that point, the region in western Ukraine could ask Hungary for protectorate status and the Carpathians would then be returned to Hungary via a referendum, according to the scenario.

The funny thing, HUN can not exist without EU money, and Orban did nothing for his people. But they love him, he keeps the moslems out, like PL.

[mr.WHO]

I was aware of Hungarian post-imperial complex from Austro-Hungary, but Romania?

The only thing I'm aware is that Romania would like to (eventually, not big pressure about it) reunite with Moldova.
Romanian saw how much trouble West Germany had with East Germany and that South Korea no longer think about reuinification with North Korea.
Most Romanians I know say they want to see Moldova in EU first and catch up economically with Romania, before reunification.
Actually, there is more will on Moldova than on Romania side.

...but I never heard about any Romanian claims to modern day Ukraine territory.

[mr.WHO]

BTW, be careful and check sources of any such stuff.


Recently, here in Poland we found something relatively funny:

One of regional TV stations made a program about Russian propaganda.
They took a map picture FROM RUSSIAN TV about suppose Polish, Hungarian and Romanian claims on Western Ukraine territory.
Polish TV station swapped cyrilic to polish on the map, but the map remained identical and remained labeled as image originating from Russian propaganda.
The program was one tiny blip among usual news, amusing for people interested about Russian propaganda, but rather niche.

Now the funny part is that Russian used this tiny blip again and labeled it "Polish territorial claims to Ukraine in Polish TV".


...so double, tripple, quadruple check the source, the source of the source and then primary source - such circular derivative news are unfortunately bread and butter of present day "journalism" (even before everything started to be replaced by bots and AI generated news).

[fiksal]

Oh boy .. what is it with all those extremists spreading like weed everywhere? Hungary and Romanian extremists fantasise a Russian victory followed by the creation of a new empire (for Hungarians and Romanians) on Ukraine soil. Of course, our extremists Nazi party (AfD) is also "on board" to stimulate those fantasies.

Träume vom Großreich in Ungarn und Rumänien (german article in german state media ARD, rough title translation: "Dreams of a hungarian and romanian empire in Ukraine")

Seems like we have a brain eating parasite on earth yet to be discovered...

That is something.

[burger1]

Apparently Russia is using Starlink in occupied areas.Terminals might be bought from non Russian sources?

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-military ... 00300.html