Russia-Ukraine War

[chew-ie]

What options do the Ukrainians have?

As long as Ukraine decides to stay in the fight there will be options. As it stands right now Russia keeps attacking everyone, Ukraine is just the visible part.

[jlehtone]

As it stands right now Russia keeps attacking everyone, Ukraine is just the visible part.

Like GPS jamming* around Tartu Airport in Estonia?

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tartu_Airport

[mr.WHO]

Or various (military) fatories having unexplained fire across Europe.

E.g. Berlin factory one or two days ago that produce components to long range missiles.


The silent war started long ago - I'd say as early as a year before invasion, when Belarus started to push "refugees" across Poland and Baltics borders.

[Warenwolf]

Or various (military) fatories having unexplained fire across Europe.

E.g. Berlin factory one or two days ago that produce components to long range missiles.


The silent war started long ago - I'd say as early as a year before invasion, when Belarus started to push "refugees" across Poland and Baltics borders.

It started way before that, in fact over a decade ago, around the time when the last war in Georgia happened - 2008/2009. You just happened to notice that later when the hybrid war become less silent with hostile actions more frequent and more obvious.

[mr.WHO]

LOOOOOOOL

<Russia for whole 2 years> We are fighting entire NATO in Ukraine!
<France now> We have 100 soldiers in Slowiansk.
<Russia now> gulp...ekhm...we are veryfiyng this.

[mr.WHO]

Ladies and gentelmen - I think we solved the mystery of Ukraine shooting down Russian planes in suppose safe regions around Crimea:
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 5115537478

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 0270701670


It's so rudiculously simple it's genius

They should move in packs, so when Russians engage one as a bait, the others engage Russians

[notaterran]

That would explain a few things

[notaterran]

French President Emmanuel Macron repeated last week that he doesn’t exclude sending troops to Ukraine, and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Kyiv’s forces will be able to use British long-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia.

The Kremlin branded those comments as dangerous, heightening tension between Russia and NATO.

Link

Blah, blah, blah, nuclear war, blah, blah, blah...

Every passing year of the Ukraine war is bringing Russia closer to becoming North Korea. Is someone counting how many of Putin's red lines has NATO already crossed?

[chew-ie]

To me, Russia "bombed" itself back to the stone age when invading Ukraine. And it is working hard to convince the rest of the world that it became a savage and has no interest in playing nice with anyone. Even "allies" are only a means to an end.

If the russian people aren't standing up soon they have a long time of being shunned just like their leaders are - and the more they wait the more the taint will stain on every russian citizen.

[fiksal]

In a way, that's the goal.

Russians are okay with a lot of things, mass murder in another country is fine as long as it's not you who are being killed.

It's also a bit of a death cult in that dying for the mother land is somehow noble, which is good, considering no other perks and support is given to those that survive.

Russians also okay with their own being jailed as long as it's only their neighbor.

Anyone who thinks or says otherwise only says that in private and is also guilty of the above, of the silent support of the war.

The only trigger that I predicted that can shake it up is a mass mobilization. I was wrong that making the society closer to fascism will do anything. I forgot the above moods that were there since 1930s.

[burger1]

Another refinery hit in Bashkortostan and some depots. Apparently the US has decided it's good for business.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... urce=email

And another refinery hit in the last few hours in Kaluga.

Mike Johnson to keep his job as the House Speaker after Marjorie Taylor Greene tried to get him voted out. 359 voted against the motion to get him removed, 43 voted in favour of the motion to start having him removed and 28 didn't vote. Marjorie Taylor Greene was booed by both sides.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... index.html

[mr.WHO]

Aparently Russia started offensive towards Charkyiv from Belogrod region.

I really hope the fortifications Ukrainians made here, aren't a big fat lie like the 2nd defense line in Adjivka

[fiksal]

Mike Johnson to keep his job as the House Speaker after Marjorie Taylor Greene tried to get him voted out. 359 voted against the motion to get him removed, 43 voted in favour of the motion to start having him removed and 28 didn't vote. Marjorie Taylor Greene was booed by both sides.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... index.html

what a puppet she is.

after all antisemitic, racist, or just dumb things she said, plus all the hard pro Putin cheerleading she is doing, she is still in politics

hopefully she moves later to Russia

[burger1]

Another oil refinery hit in Volgograd. A separate industrial area in Lipetsk was also attacked.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-repor ... 56672.html

Another dam in Ukraine blown up.

More missiles, Himars etc... given to Ukraine today.

[Sovereign01]

Putin replaces Russia’s defense minister with a civilian as Ukraine war rages and defense spending spirals

CNN
—
Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced his defense minister and a long-time close ally Sergei Shoigu with an economist, a major reshuffle of military leadership more than two years after Moscow’s grinding war against Ukraine has sent defense spending soaring.

Andrey Belousov, a civilian who served as former first deputy prime minister and specializes in economics, was appointed to the top defense post, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday.

Peskov tried to downplay the move, but the reshuffle comes amid speculation about infighting at the highest echelons of power. Just last month, one of Shoigu’s long-time protégés at the defense ministry was arrested and charged with corruption.

Shoigu was “relieved” of his position by presidential decree, Peskov said, but he will remain an influential part of Putin’s administration as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, replacing Nikolai Patrushev, a former head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), who would “transfer to another job.”

Shoigu will also become the deputy in Russia’s Military-Industrial Commission, Peskov said, as Putin embarks on a fifth term as president.

The timing of Shoigu’s exit is notable, coming off the back of several significant advances by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.

Russia has launched its most serious cross-border ground assault since Ukraine recaptured the northern Kharkiv region in the late summer of 2022. There have been several months of increased Russian air attacks on the city of Kharkiv amid a grinding advance in Donetsk in the east that has seen incremental but significant progress.

Shoigu had helmed the country’s defense ministry for 12 years and led the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russian troops initially caught Kyiv by surprise but were soon beaten back, exposing the weaknesses of Moscow’s corruption-riddled military and its willingness to send waves of poorly trained and equipped soldiers into what Ukraine and Russian troops have both dubbed a “meat grinder.”

His critics have frequently described Shoigu as remote and out-of-touch with the realities of the conflict. His most forceful critic was the late Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin who accused the Defense Ministry of starving his fighters of resources and bureaucratic incompetence before launching an unsuccessful mutiny last year and dying weeks later in a plane crash.

Despite the criticism, Shoigu has remained a popular politician in Russia. Having spent two decades as the minister of emergency situations, he cultivated an image of a helpful official who brings help when it’s needed.

He is also a rare outsider in Putin’s original inner circle, which consists mostly of the president’s allies from his St. Petersburg political beginnings and his former KGB colleagues. Shoigu was born and grew up in the remote Siberian republic of Tuva and got into politics through his association with the former president Boris Yeltsin.

Rising military spending and need for ‘innovation’
Belousov’s appointment suggests Russia’s strategy will continue to focus on outgunning Ukraine.

Belousov was selected by Putin because of a need for “innovation,” Peskov said in a press call, during which he highlighted the ministry’s rising budget, saying it was approaching levels last seen during the Cold War.

“Today on the battlefield, the winner is the one who is more open to innovation,” Peskov said. “Therefore, it is natural that at the current stage, the president decided that the Russian Ministry of Defense should be headed by a civilian.”

In a reference to the war in Ukraine, Peskov said that due to “well-known geopolitical circumstances, we are gradually approaching the situation of the mid-80s when the share of expenses for the security bloc in the economy was 7.4%. It’s not critical, but it’s extremely important,” Peskov said.

The budget currently amounts to 6.7% of GDP, he said.

Peskov highlighted Belousov’s previous leadership experience and economic background.

“This is not just a civilian, but a person who very successfully headed the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, for a long time he was aide to the president on economic issues, and was also the first deputy chairman of the government in the previous cabinet of ministers,” Peskov said.

Much has been made of Belousov’s civilian status, even though Shoigu himself has limited hands-on experience with the military. He holds a rank of a general as a result of his official roles and has never served in active service.

Peskov added that the new appointment did not signal a shift in Russia’s current military system.

“As for the military component, this appointment will in no way change the current coordinate systems. The military component has always been the prerogative of the Chief of the General Staff [Valery Gerasimov], and he will continue his activities. No changes are currently envisaged in this regard,” he said.

In his new role, Shoigu will oversee Russia’s military industrial complex, Peskov said.

Russian deputy defense minister dismissed after arrest on corruption charges
“He is deeply immersed in this work, he knows very well the pace of production of military-industrial products at specific enterprises and often visits these enterprises,” he said.

The news follows the arrest last month of one of Shoigu’s close allies, deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov, who was charged with taking a bribe in what was the country’s highest-profile corruption scandal since Putin launched his full invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.

Ivanov has been accused of accepting a bribe of 1 million rubles (at least $10,800), according to Russian state media TASS.

Former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told CNN in an interview Sunday that Putin’s reshuffle is an “important” and “interesting move.”

“The bigger argument coming out of Moscow right now is that Russia is moving toward a war economy,” he said. “They’re on a war footing.”

Esper said that “one of the disappointing things about Shoigu’s tenure is we thought the Russian army, at least during my time at the Pentagon, we thought they were professionalizing, that they were modernizing all their equipment, their doctrine, how they train and fight, and we really haven’t seen that on the battlefield.”

[burger1]

Russia had a record loss of manpower two days ago. Still losing more than normal due to increased activity.

Fires in the battle grounds hindering both sides.

Russia still dropping large bombs on it's own territory. 33 so far?

NATO members actively preparing/gearing up troops and equipment for potential deployment in Ukraine. Seems likely to happen to some extent.

[Alan Phipps]

".. for potential deployment in Ukraine" I would expect it more to be ".. for potential deployments because of Ukraine and escalations". Avoiding direct NATO-Russia military confrontation and clearly signalling that intent are still very high NATO priorities. NATO is a defensive pact for safeguarding NATO members only and Ukraine isn't in there yet.

[burger1]

Defending Ukraine is likely a defensive measure for NATO. Just because it doesn't happen on NATO territory doesn't mean it's not a threat to NATO.

Anyways individual countries in NATO can enter the battle whenever they want. The US has said at least a year ago they would support members countries if they decided to send in troops to fight Russia. Whether the countries land mass would still be protected by NATO = ?

It looks like Antarctica is being claimed by various countries.

[Falcrack]

Regarding Article 5, if a NATO country were to unilaterally enter the war on behalf of Ukraine, on Ukrainian territory, I don't think that Russian attacks on that country's forces within Ukraine would be able to trigger Article 5.

But, if that NATO nation which unilaterally entered the war in Ukraine were to limit its operations to within recognized Ukrainian territory, and was then attacked on its own territory by Russian forces (for example, Poland fighting in Ukraine against Russia is subsequently attacked on Polish soil by Russian forces), would that be able to trigger Article 5?

Reading the text of the NATO treaty, it seems that a NATO member could participate in the fight in Ukraine directly and unilaterally, without revoking its ability to invoke Article 5 in case Russia were to attack their territory directly in retaliation.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/offi ... _17120.htm

[burger1]

Pro Russian Slovakia prime minister shot multiple times. Might have been shot in the head at least once.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video ... shot-video